Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Karl's Alberta election analysis

So, contrary to what many pundits were predicting, the Wild Rose did not form the next government. But it was close in places. In ten ridings, the PC only beat out the Wildrose by around 500 votes. A full 34% of those that voted endorsed Wildrose. The Wildrose ridings are exclusively in the south part of Alberta, which makes me think this was mainly about the promise of land owner's rights. Liberal and NDP presence was concentrated in Calgary and Edmonton. Period.

I think the strategic vote was out in full force on Monday night and this is basically what quelled the Wildrose uprising. I am certain that if you could poll all of the voters who picked PC, a significant portion were Liberal supporters who decided that a PC vote was the only way to stop Wildrose from forming government.

It's too bad in a way, because pundits will point to the low 10% support of the Liberals as a sign that they're insignificant as a party in Alberta. I would offer that had everyone voted exactly according to the party that best represents their values and priorities, the seat numbers would have been more like PC 41; WRP 22; LIB 20; and NDP 4. This would have actually created a PC minority, something I think many people agree they would deserve. It would also have created a rather unique situation in Alberta that has never existed before. Two parties on opposite ends of the political spectrum would hold the balance of power between them. This would force everyone to cooperate for a change. The PC government would have to adopt some Liberal suggestions and Wildrose suggestions too. A situation that I think is much more progressive than the situation that was created instead. We'll hear a lot of pandering to the electorate about how they heard the message and then it will end up being same-old, same-old.

Which to me, means that if PC doesn't smarten up, the next government will be a Wildrose minority, because unfortunately, there are too many Albertans with the attitude "I will never vote Liberal after what they did to us 32 years ago". To which I have a few words in response. Get over it. Also, wrong group of Liberals, dumbass. Also, thanks for depriving me of my chance at a free university education. Bastards!

No comments: